Can we Possibly Predict Spring Weather?

ChiloquinNews article 1/24/2011

This break from the cold weather that we’ve had for the last week and the resulting bare ground, has turned my thoughts to spring. It’s too soon, we all know that, but it seems to be unavoidable.

I have a friend who holds to the theory that since the average temperatures remain fairly constant from year to year, then a cold winter will be followed by a mild spring, and conversely, a mild winter will be followed by a colder spring, in order to average things out. That seemed to be true last year when January was warm (for January) and the spring was long and cold. I have a weather station that records temperatures at my house, which may be different from your house, since we seem to have so many microclimates here, but the trend should be the same for all of us. I’ve made a graph of the temperatures from last winter compared to this winter so far.

Last year was colder in mid-November, this year colder at the end of November

Last year was colder in early December, this year colder in early January

And how we forget! I remembered that last January was too warm, but I had completely forgotten that last December was so cold.

What do you think? Maybe it will just average out, but I don’t think I’m ready to try to predict the spring!


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